With the official issuance of the 15th Five-Year Plan for the Prevention and Control of Solid Waste Pollution (hereinafter referred to as the Plan), China’s solid waste treatment industry has entered a critical stage of strategic transformation. Driven by the dual goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality as well as the circular economy, the massive market that handles over 11 billion tons of solid waste annually is phasing out the extensive growth model relying on landfilling and incineration, and advancing toward comprehensive upgrading in resource utilization, high-value industrialization and intelligent operation.

Expansion of Zero-Waste Cities Stimulates a Trillion-Yuan Governance Market

The Plan clearly states that China will promote high-quality construction of zero-waste cities during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, supporting the development of approximately 200 zero-waste cities and advancing full-scale collaborative construction in key regions including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. This marks a shift of solid waste governance from pilot exploration to systematic comprehensive implementation.

Li Jinhui, Executive Director of the Basel Convention Regional Centre for Asia and the Pacific, pointed out that guided by the zero-waste index, this transformation will build a three-dimensional governance system integrating point-based, line-based and area-based management. To achieve this goal, China will fully advance the construction of the major “1+6+20” hazardous waste projects and adopt comprehensive technologies including satellite remote sensing and AI video identification to eliminate regulatory blind spots.

Solving Growing Pains: Waste Incineration Shifts from Quantity-Driven to Quality-Driven Development

After decades of rapid development, the waste-to-energy incineration industry is facing prominent growing pains. Thanks to the advancement of waste classification and the slowdown in waste generation growth, incineration plants in some regions are confronted with insufficient waste supply, making the traditional quantity-reliant profit model unsustainable.

Qu Ruijing, Chief Expert of the Zhongguancun Green Innovation Environmental Governance Alliance, stated that the demographic, policy and capital dividends that once boosted the industry are fading. Faced with this industry shift, enterprises are actively exploring new development paths. On the one hand, they expand revenue sources through co-disposal of industrial solid waste, cogeneration of heat and power, and overseas market expansion. On the other hand, AI-enabled refined management has become a core approach to cost reduction and efficiency improvement.

In the long run, the positioning of incineration plants is undergoing fundamental changes. As industry insiders noted, such facilities will gradually evolve from major waste disposal infrastructures into the final line of defense and safety valve of the resource recycling system, specifically handling residual wastes that cannot be recycled or reused.

 Surge in Retired New Energy Equipment Unlocks Hundred-Billion-Value Urban Mining Track

A major highlight of the Plan is the forward-looking layout of pollution prevention and control for retired new energy equipment. As the first batch of power batteries enters large-scale retirement and tens of millions of tons of photovoltaic modules are set to be scrapped in the next decade, the new energy solid waste recycling market has become the most promising emerging track in the solid waste industry.

Statistics show that China’s retired power battery volume reached 820,000 tons in 2025, and is expected to exceed 4 million tons by 2028, driving the output value of the waste battery recycling industry to surpass 280 billion yuan. Meanwhile, China’s first complete industrial pilot production line for crystalline silicon photovoltaic module recycling has been fully operational in Qinghai, marking the official commercialization of retired photovoltaic module recycling.

Globalization and Intelligent Reshape the Industrial Landscape

Globally, the solid waste management market maintains steady growth. The market size is projected to grow from approximately 1.34 trillion US dollars in 2026 to 1.94 trillion US dollars in 2032. Artificial intelligence has become a universal technology in global solid waste management, with technologies ranging from intelligent sorting robots to methane detection redefining industrial operational efficiency.

Industry insiders generally believe that in the next five years, the solid waste industry will gradually shed its traditional image of low-end waste disposal, and grow into a key growth pillar of the green economy while supporting the construction of a beautiful China. For industry participants, enterprises that master core resource utilization technologies, possess digital operation capabilities, and seize emerging tracks such as new energy waste recycling will gain a leading edge in the new round of industrial integration and high-quality development.

Hebi Xingguang Environmental Protection

— Solid Waste Resource Utilization Solution Provider —

Mobile: +86 16663920002

Tel: +86 392 2563669

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